Case study: Untung ada, duit mana???


朋友们周末早上好,刚刚攀爬完山回来,整个人都精神一些了 XD。 话说今天早上山里的空气真好, 凉风习习,运动流了汗之后,真的好凉爽。


俗语说:“早起的鸟儿有虫吃, bluefun 小弟就说早起的运动有风吹,哈哈哈 :P  既然精神百倍了,看来又是做一做功课分析一下一家公司基本面的时候啦 XD


除了要懂得分析 (analyze) 与发掘 (explore) 一家良好基本面的公司之外,bluefun 小弟认为投资者也必须学会更加全面性地解剖一家公司看起来盈利 (consistent profit) 维持不错但是股价却背道而驰 (share price ding ding dong dong) 的公司?


到底是什么真正的原因让公司的股价浮浮沉沉呢?盈利 (Profit) 一直保持上扬的状态,却引不起投资者的青睐?? Why?? Why ?? Why ??


一般上,投资者认为的盈利与股价是成为正比的 :


Profit up, share price up trending - attract more investor to buy due to good past historical result, healthy balance sheet,good future growth, earning visibility



 




然而今天所探讨的 case study 如图下:

(1) Turn around stock,from losses position turn to improved profit position

(2) Profit up,why share price cannot moving to north, jump up??





原来这家公司隐藏着大乾坤 (hidden balance sheet) 呢?若是身为投资者的您看见亏钱的公司 turn around 开始赚钱的时候,是不是觉得这家公司应该把她纳入 investment portfolio 不可呢??沧海遗珠??


若单单只注意income statement/profit&loss 的 profit 的话,这的确是一家逐渐改善盈利 (improvement in bottom line) 的公司,属于由亏专盈 turn around 的 stock 。


从 2011 年至 2015年, 公司的盈利慢慢地改善,由2011年与2012年的亏损改善至2013年的盈利, 直到2014年的大大盈利。 在2014年那个时侯,公司的股价也随之扶摇而上达到了股价顶端 (profit up, share price up up up)。


然而好景不长, 2015年虽然公司创下了历史高峰盈利的一年(historical highest profit),股价却开始慢慢地一步一步由 2014年的股价顶点下滑,开始出现 down trending 的状况,也就是 ding ding dong dong。


为何会这样呢??心里是不是出现一个大大的问号?? 2016年虽然盈利比起2015年退步那么丁点,也不至于出现横摆的状况吧??


这就是如果投资者只注重 profit/(loss) 的盲点与误区。 当然,若是站在 fundamental analysis 的观点,我们必须更加全面地剖析一家公司,透过 balance sheet, profit/(loss) statement, cash flow statement, notes to financial statement & etc。所以说, overall analysis 很重要 LOL



这情况犹如爬一座山,流了汗水,坚持到底,只有爬到了最顶点,才能俯瞰整座山峰的美景。


人有无限的潜能,别把自己的能力局限于束缚的范围,唯有努力加把劲突围而出,才知道自己可以走多远


好像有点离题了,哈哈哈,趁朋友们还没丢臭鸡蛋离场时,赶快赶快拉回来今天的 case study LOL


原来原来,公司的 revenue 虽然攀高,带动了 profit, 可是 debt 涨的高高滴,而且 receivables 也是节节上升。 唯有 cash equivalent 攀低, bad cash flow (net CFFO negative,Free cash flow negative) 。


Case study


(a) Revenue growth,improved EBT from loss to profit position

 Oh yeah, discovered a hidden gem company ,turn around stock,revenue up, profit up, share price definitely up de mah??







(b) Free cash flow negative ( negative in CFFO & FCF )

Revenue increasing year by year, why still negative net cash flow from operating activities into company operation??

Where is your cash?? Profit up leeeeeeeee





(c) Free cash flow negative,cash equivalent deficit

Revenue & profit up, why cash on hand still in deficit position??

Duit mana pergi??









(d) Negative CFFO due to weak credit management

Revenue up, profit also up, but no improvement in cash flow, hike in receivables 

Unable to turn the revenue/profit as cash in flow into operation 






(e) Cash negative, borrow money

No extra cash due to unable to turn the profit as cash in flow, borrow money as working capital to maintain business operation, debt increase, finance cost increasing, reduce profit(EBT)









(f) No extra cash, no dividend declaration

Company turn around & achieve consistent net profit, but unable to turn the profit to cash in flow, borrow debt, finance cost affected EBT, no extra cash, unable to pay dividend, profit sharing yik lekkk






(g) Negative Cash flow affected share price in long run

Unable to turn the profit as cash in flow, no money to declare dividend as appreciation for loyalty shareholder

No dividend,no profit sharing,no appreciation,lose investor interest to invest












综合了以上的图表,看来“cash” 在一家公司里扮演了重要的角色,也与公司的股价息息相关。 所以说,若一味着只注重 profit ,却忽略了 cash flow 与 balance sheet 的存在,这也许就是投资者在投资路上的绊脚石。


一家公司的营运 (operating activities) 必须靠钱 (cash) 来买进 Property, plant & equipment(PPE) as capital expenditure (CAPEX) 提高 production capacity, 付薪水于员工 (salary expense), 承担管理费用 (admin expense) 来持续性的提高 revenue to generate profit as a return。 而公司也必须良好的与 vendor 保持良好的关系以提供更佳的 payment term,摊还 outstanding invoices from vendor。


所以,当 revenue increasing的同时,若是 customer 能准时或提早还钱 (cash flow into operation),那样公司的现金流动就会变好,从而减少借贷(loan & borrowings) as additional working capital。因此,省下了许多的贷款利息 (reduce finance cost = extra bonus to increase profit)。所以说, credit management 是一家公司能不能提高 cash on hand 的关键。


CFFO = Cash in flow > cash out flow = FREE CASH FLOW

Dividend = reduce investor holding cost , profit sharing


其实现金流 (cash flow) 扮演的角色也与咱们的生活息息相关呢。 若是咱们手上的现金流处理得良好的话,这会让咱们省下很多不必要的开支 ( redundancy expense),从而提高手上的现金流。 节省不必要的开支其实也是一种开源的好办法。 所以说,现金流 (cash flow management) 与理财 (financial management) 在我们的日常生活里很重要很重要 LOL


你不理财,财不理你,就是没钱才要更加学会良好的理财基础与态度 :)


FCF = CFFO - CFFI(CAPEX + Intangible asset)
Positive FCF :

  - declare dividends – dividend as appreciation

  - share buybacks stabilize share price

  - reinvest – business expansion

  - pay debt reduce interest expense

Negative FCF :

  - issue more shares(right issue) diluted EPS

  - loan & borrow more from financial institution –  > financial risk, > finance cost







Quote of the day

"Real growth = turn the profit to cash in flow(CFFO)" - bluefun

“Revenue is vanity, cash flow is sanity, but cash is king.” – Anonymous  


Keep your eye on free cash flow.” - Warren Buffett


So this is the goal: To make money by increasing net profit, while simultaneously increasing return on investment, and simultaneously increasing cash flow."

- Eliyahu M. Goldratt


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P/S: This article is just for sharing & analysis purpose, this is not a buy call or sell call, any trade please on your own risks.




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